Navigating Which Trends Are Worthy of Investment in The Era of TikTok

Predicting the longevity of a trend in today’s digital age where the 20-year trend cycle is now obsolete can be daunting. Trends used to start on the runway and then trickle down to the streets in a slow and more predictable nature. Much like your favorite Colleen Hoover book, trend cycles have an exposition, “rising action”, climax, and “falling action”—or, in other words, introduction, rise, peak, decline, and obsolescence. However, in the era of TikTok, this once-useful framework has lost its relevance. Fashion trends now become viral in an instant, reaching their “peak” almost immediately. Current TikTok sensations like “The Eclectic Grandpa” and “Mob Wife” styles exemplify this rapid rise and equally swift decline. So, the pressing question becomes: how do we differentiate the long-lasting trends versus fads? Below are some of my go-to strategies for predicting a trend’s potential lifespan (for those times when my crystal ball is out of commission, naturally).

Versatility & Practicality

Arguably the most important factor of a trend's longevity is its versatility. Those trends that gracefully transition through all four seasons and pair seamlessly with wardrobe staples tend to have a longer life span and are, therefore, more worthy of investment. Take mega viral leopard print, although it appears to be at its peak right now, it’s not going anywhere anytime soon. Its versatility is undeniable. And let's be honest, has leopard print ever really gone out of style? The answer, quite simply, is a resounding no.

Images courtesy of: Ganni, Dolce & Gabbana, Katya M @fleksonn, Nereja @n_e_r_e_j_a, BB Jupieterr @bbjupiterr

The Pendulum of Fashion Theory

Understanding the pendulum of fashion is helpful for navigating whether you want to invest in a trend. In the fashion world, the pendulum of fashion states that trends will swing from one extreme to another. For instance, let's look at jeans. In 2023 we saw jeans reach their ‘extreme’ where palazzo pants, cargo pants, and ultra-baggy styles dominated the landscape. According to the pendulum and many fashion forecasts, it looks like there will be a swing back in the other direction… to the dreaded skinny jeans. The pendulum's influence extends to color trends too. 2023 was a tribute to Barbiecore, with hot pink capturing the zeitgeist. Yet now, we observe the pendulum shifting to the slightly more extreme, cherry red. What's on the horizon? Likely a chic neutral, a poised opposite on the color wheel, much like the butter yellow you have likely been seeing everywhere. Grasping where a trend sits on this pendulum not only aids in smart fashion investments but can also help you predict the next big 'it' color or style.

Images courtesy of: Anthropologie, Reformation, Pinterest, Ganni

Market Saturation

Although trends now hit their peak at unprecedented speed, observing retail and shopping patterns can give you clues about how close a trend is to decline. When you see a trend quickly adopted by fast fashion retailers know that it's likely on the peak of decline. Similarly, noting the speed at which celebrities and influencers adopt a trend can be an indication of the trend's point of saturation. With mass celebration adaptations of a trend, you will be likely to see a rise in a trend’s popularity, and in turn a quicker saturation and decline. A trend adopted more gradually might have a longer life and is more worth your investment. Remember - fashion innovators are always looking for what's new, not what's already in. 

Economic Factors

During periods of economic prosperity, there's often a surge in experimental fashion, with people more willing to splurge on avant-garde pieces, including bold patterns and colors. In times of economic downturn, fashion tends to become more pragmatic and subdued. Consumers lean towards functionality, durability, and classic styles. Aesthetics like minimalism or 'quiet luxury' often emerge during such times - these ‘trends’ are always worthy of investment. This spring we are seeing a shift away from bright florals and focus on more simple styles and colors, such as stark whites, icy blues, light grey, and other neutrals. Paying attention to the climate of our economy will give you an indication of where the fashion landscape is headed next. 

Navigating the ever-changing and sometimes unpredictable world of fashion, my top piece of advice: Don’t chase after every trend that emerges. Instead, cultivate your own sense of style that showcases your individuality because your personal style is timeless and always on trend, and dare I say, cooler than whatever new aesthetic will pop up on your TikTok tomorrow. 

By Elena Aukamp